Kiss My Donkey
Predicting a good outlook for Obama
Stephen Yellin
Issue date: 2/29/08 Section: Opinion
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And barring an unexpected comeback from Hillary Rodham Clinton-the race to succeed him has come down to two men: A Vietnam War veteran in his early 70s and a man young enough to be his son-a skinny African-American with an unusual name who was born in Hawaii and whose paternal family still lives in Kenya. That the electorate in 2008 will be decided between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama is, frankly a bit of a surprise to me. Neither man was a favorite to win his party's nomination-McCain because his humane stance on immigration clashes with the bigotry of many in his party, and Obama because of Clinton's seemingly insurmountable organizational strength.
Yet while McCain managed to eke out victories in South Carolina and Florida over a split opposition to move towards the nomination, Obama's victories have been nothing short of impressive. Usually, his margins of victory have flummoxed the pollsters, as incredibly high turnout in the Democratic Primary has benefited Obama time and time again.
Furthermore, Obama's supporters are predominantly younger and have been less active in Democratic Party politics than Clinton's, according to exit polls conducted in the states that have voted so far. And hypothetical polls of an Obama-McCain campaign show Obama doing much better in states across the country than John Kerry in 2004.
What, then, should you make of what is nothing less than a political phenomenon?
It cannot be denied that Obama is an excellent public speaker-I was in the audience when he delivered an electrifying speech at the Democratic National Convention in Boston. It was the speech that catapulted him into the national limelight. And it is also true that he has been promoting a message of "hope" and "change" throughout the campaign, a message that the other candidates have only belatedly come around to promoting themselves.
But I do not believe that words and appearances alone can explain why Obama has done so well so far. Even in the modern age of television and 24-7 coverage of Presidential elections, being charismatic and attractive is usually not enough. People forget that John F. Kennedy had the same amount of political experience as Richard Nixon in 1960, and that JFK emphasized his own experience as a key rationale for voting for him. And let's be honest, folks-Obama has spent three full years in the U.S. Senate, the last one in which he was busy running for President. Compared to McCain's ample resume, Obama's looks pretty thin.
2008 Woodie Awards

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